A client was considering acquiring an established real estateagency for approximately $3 million.
The business had an established rent roll generating recurringproperty-management income, together with a sales division generatingcommission income.
There were historical financial statements and independentvaluation reports available.
But before committing $3 million — and taking on substantialacquisition finance — we wanted to answer a more important question:
After the client buys the business, will it generate enough cashto operate comfortably and service the acquisition debt?
Historical profit was only the starting point
We reviewed several years of financial information and theindependent valuation reports, but we didn't simply take the reported profitand assume it would continue.
The business had different revenue streams with differentcharacteristics.
An established rent roll could provide relatively recurringmanagement fee income, while sales commissions could fluctuate considerablydepending on transaction volumes, market conditions and the performance of thesales team.
We therefore looked at what was driving the business: the size andquality of the rent roll, recurring and ancillary management income, historicalsales commissions, staffing and commission costs, premises and operatingexpenses, maintainable earnings and working-capital requirements.
We also compared relevant aspects of the business againstavailable real estate industry benchmarks.
The objective wasn't to assume the business should perform exactlylike an industry average. Benchmarking gave us another reference point foridentifying unusual costs or margins and testing whether the assumptions beingused in the acquisition model appeared commercially supportable.
Then we modelled what happened after the purchase
Historical accounts tell you what happened under the previousowner.
The client needed to understand what could happen afterpaying $3 million for the business and taking on the acquisition debt.
We prepared a forward-looking cashflow forecast incorporating theexpected revenue and operating costs, working-capital requirements and proposedacquisition funding.
Importantly, we modelled both interest and principal repayments.
That distinction matters.
Interest affects accounting profit. Repayment of loan principalgenerally doesn't appear as an expense in the profit and loss statement — butthe cash still has to leave the business.
A business can therefore look profitable on paper while havingsignificantly less cash available after servicing the debt used to buy it.
We also tested what happened if some of the assumptions changed.What if sales commissions were lower? How much of the income was recurring?What level of staffing did the business actually require? How much workingcapital needed to remain in the business?
Ultimately, the question became:
After paying the employees, operating expenses, working capitalrequirements, interest and principal repayments, was there still enough cashflow and headroom for the acquisition to make sense?
The model helped turn a $3 million decision into somethingmeasurable
The forecast also formed part of the financial informationprepared to support the client's financing process with the lender.
By bringing together the historical financials, valuation reports,rent-roll economics, sales income, staffing costs, industry benchmarking andacquisition finance, the client could see more than whether the business hadhistorically made a profit.
They could see how that profit could translate intocash after acquisition — and whether that cash was expected to support the debtrequired to buy the business.
The client ultimately proceeded with the acquisition.
A $3 million purchase should not be based solely on what thebusiness earned yesterday.
Before buying, we wanted the client to understand:
“If I buy this business, what could the cash flow look liketomorrow — and can it comfortably pay for the debt I am taking on today?”
This case study has been generalised and certain details,including financial amounts, have been changed to protect client and businessconfidentiality. General information only. Business acquisition decisionsdepend on the particular circumstances, including maintainable earnings,revenue composition, working capital, transaction structure, financing termsand industry conditions. Forecasts and benchmarking depend on assumptions andavailable information, and actual results may differ. Our role was to providefinancial, cash-flow and tax analysis and information to support the client'sfinancing process. Lending and credit decisions remain matters for the lenderand, where applicable, an appropriately licensed credit or financeprofessional.
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